The South Africa Automotive Market Forecast is a detailed analysis of the South African automotive market, which has been moving like a roller coaster since 2015.
The share of domestic sales in South Africa has increased from 58% in 2019 to 63% in 2024, while exports have declined from 42% to 37%. Once African countries start to promote Electric vehicles, there is potential for exponential export growth from South Africa. For example, Kenya is preparing to promote the EV in the country on a massive level. But it will take some time since it is at the beginning stage.
For Commercial Vehicles (CVs), the export share grew from 34% in 2015 to 41% in 2024, while domestic sales dropped from 66% to 59%, reflecting a greater focus on global demand.
For Passenger Vehicles (PVs), the export share remained stable, with a slight decline from 36% in 2015 to 35% in 2024, while domestic sales rose slightly from 64% to 65%.
Between 2016 and 2020, the Automotive market declined with a negative CAGR of -7.3%, impacted significantly by the COVID-19 pandemic—the sales volume dropped from 923K units in 2019 to 651K in 2020. Post-COVID registered an impressive growth of a CAGR of +6.1% from 2020 to 2022, reaching 931K units. In 2024, the market is still down by 11% compared to 2019 or pre-COVID-19. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of +4.3% until 2030.
The South African Automotive industry is fundamentally strong. The beauty of the South African market is that all key Automotive Brands are present in South Africa. The market has enough space for German, French, American Indian, American, Chinese, and Japanese Brands. Every brand has an opportunity to make a significant presence in the market.
There were 515,712 Vehicles sold in 2024 compared to 531,775 vehicles in 2023. 2024 registered a 3% degrowth compared to 2023. South Africa’s Automotive Market showed a –3.5 percent CAGR between 2015 and 2020, or the pre-COVID level. The post-COVID market recovered and registered a 7.9 percent CAGR between 2020 and 2024.
ACG expected a 4.3 percent CAGR between 2024 and 2030. Chinese OEMs are launching new models in South Africa with advanced technology, Spacious space, and a value-for-money proposition, impacting other brands like Japanese Models.
South Africa exports vehicles to many African countries, including Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Kenya, Nigeria, the USA, the Middle East, and the EU. However, countries like Kenya and Tanzania are focusing on domestic vehicle production. In 2019, South Africa exported 387K units.
Exports declined by 43% in 2020 compared to 2019. Significant growth came back on track, with exports reaching 400K units in 2023. The automotive market is set to rebound, with a CAGR of +4.5% forecast30.
South Africa PV market:
In 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic, Car sales and exports peaked at 616K units. In 2020, due to the pandemic, car sales touched 425K units. The market showed signs of recovery in 2020. The car segment grew at a CAGR of 6.3% from 2020 to 2023, reaching 606K units. However, 2024 saw a decline of 12% to 544K units. By 2030, the market will rebound with a CAGR of 4.3% and surpass pre-pandemic levels.
South Africa’s car sales declined from 2015 to 2020, hitting a low of 247K units. Car Sales multiplied after 2020 or post covid, with a 9.3% CAGR until 2024. The market will expand at a 4.2% CAGR by 2030. Sales will rise by 28% from 2024 to 2030, showing a strong recovery. However, 2030 sales will still be 1% below pre-pandemic levels.
Car exports peaked at 261K units in 2019 before the pandemic. Sales dropped sharply to 174,000 units in 2021. Recovery started in 2022, reaching 258K units in 2023. In 2024, sales declined again to 193K units. In 2024, car exports remain 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
Top 10 PV Models Product position:
The budget segment features models like the Hyundai Grand i10 and Suzuki Swift, which dominate the lower price range. The executive segment includes the Toyota Corolla Cross, Volkswagen Polo Hatch, and Toyota Starlet, positioned in the mid-range price category. The premium segment is the Toyota Fortuner, categorized at a significantly higher price point. Nissan Magnite and Chery Tiggo 4 Pro lead in the subcompact SUV category, showing substantial market share.
The budget segment features models like the Hyundai Grand i10 and Suzuki Swift, which dominate the lower price range. The executive segment includes the Toyota Corolla Cross, Volkswagen Polo Hatch, and Toyota Starlet, positioned in the mid-range price category. The premium segment is the Toyota Fortuner, categorized at a significantly higher price point. Nissan Magnite and Chery Tiggo 4 Pro lead in the subcompact SUV category, showing substantial market share.
The Toyota Corolla Cross and Polo Vivo lead in market share while maintaining a mid-range price. The Toyota Corolla Cross follows closely with a higher price point. Suzuki Swift is strong in the budget or entry-level segment with a notable market share.
Models like the Hyundai Grand i10, Toyota Starlet, and Chery Tiggo 4 Pro offer affordability with a moderate market share. Toyota Fortuner is positioned as a premium model with a significantly higher price but a lower market share. Nissan Magnite and Haval Jolion cater to the lower price range but have a smaller market share than budget leaders.
Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast 2030:
The South African Commercial vehicle market grew by a 5.5% CAGR from 2020 to 2024. Sales peaked at 458K units in 2016. In 2020, sales dropped to 226K units due to COVID-19. The market shows signs of recovery, with a +4.3% CAGR projected until 2030. Commercial Vehicles are 9% below 2019 levels in 2024.
When MAN Truck launched its CLA truck range, the South African market was chosen to test the waters. The CLA truck was positioned as affordable between premium and entry-level trucks.
South African commercial vehicle sales grew by 5.3% between 2020 and 2024. Sales peaked at 351K units in 2016. COVID-19 caused a sharp drop to 134K units in 2020. The market slightly recovered, reaching 184K units in 2023. In 2024, sales remain 9% below 2019 levels.
The South African Commercial vehicle export market grew at a +5.8% CAGR. Exports peaked at 141K units in 2023. COVID-19 caused a steep decline to 92K units in 2020. CV exports will reach 116K units in 2024.
The South African commercial vehicle market showed shifting trends between 2019 and 2024. Heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) sales increased from 19,334 units in 2019 to 23,442 units in 2024. Light commercial vehicle sales declined from 153,189 units in 2019 to 133,254 in 2024. Medium commercial vehicle sales also dropped from 8,719 units in 2019 to 7,714 in 2024. While HCVs experienced growth, both LCV and MCV segments declined over the period.
The automotive industry’s contribution to South Africa’s GDP has decreased from 6.8% in 2019 to 5.3% in 2024. The Automotive manufacturing sector has significantly declined from 4.3% to 3.2%, indicating weaker production output. Other African countries have started to build production facilities in their home countries. The retail segment has also shrunk, decreasing from 2.5% to 2.1%, suggesting lower consumer demand.
Electric Vehicle Market:
Electric vehicles still have a minor market share of less than 3% (BEV less than 1%) in 2024. BMW and Volvo are the leading OEMs in South Africa in the premium segment. Chinese OEMs like BYD also plan to gain a significant market share in the EV segment. The government has been provided with several recommendations, such as subsidies, production incentives, etc.
In 2024, more than 1,000 Electric cars were registered. The price of these cars is under R 1 Million, and the number of models has increased twice. The country needs affordable Electric vehicles to move the market from niche to mass market. The Volvo SUV EX30 with a single motor starts at R791,990, an attractive price point for an electric drive train.
The EX30, with a twin motor, is the most expensive at R1,055,900. The motors range from 200 to 315KW.
Eighteen brands in South Africa, including Mercedes, Porsche, Mini, BMW, JLR, etc., offer electric and hybrid vehicles. Many other brands plan to launch their cars in the country in the next 3 to 5 years. Toyota is the market leader in Hybrid vehicles.
Like the other markets, charging infrastructure, upfront cost, and Battery warranty are key challenges to adopting Electric cars in South Africa.
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